Argentina: Barley crop forecast reduced due to dryness coupled with recent frosts
From satellite vegetation images, the status of barley crop 2022 is falling behind crop 2021 in southern Buenos Aires province, RMI Analytics said in their late October report.
Dryness, coupled with recent frosts are reducing the crop potential in this important region. The analysts’ production forecast is down to 4.9 mln tonnes while most put the crop at 4.6-4.9 mln.
Export potential drops as well with a smaller crop, as the exportable surplus shrinks and this in turn increases the overall competition of Argentina barley (from other South American countries and China).
Farmer selling remains absent in the face of a troubling weather situation. Export licences for crop 2021 are now 3.8 mln tonnes, cleaning out stocks in the process. Crop 2022 licences are much lower at 1 mln tonnes.
On a slightly more positive note, the forecast shows good rain showers next week in southern Buenos Aires province, where the crop would benefit greatly. However, the rain is too late for the northern areas.
Argentina barley prices are up slightly for both malting and feed barley on prospects for lower yield and increasing quality concerns. Trade is disinterested in shorting export demand under the developing crop issues.
FAS prices to the farmers are above USD300 per tonne with little success in attracting sellers. The lack of liquidity is expected to remain until harvest, in the face of the current crop situation, the analysts said.
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